In 2018, GHG emissions declined by 2.0% while the EU economy continued to grow

In 2018, EU greenhouse gas emissions (including international aviation) were down by 23% from 1990 levels, according to preliminary data (see Figure 2). The EU thus remains well on track to achieve its target under the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change of reducing GHG emissions by 20% by 2020 3 . In 2018, emissions were 2.0 % lower than in 2017. EU GHG emissions therefore reached their lowest level since 1990. Between 1990 and 2018, the EU’s combined GDP grew by 61%. The GHG emission intensity of the economy, defined as the ratio between emissions and GDP fell to 303 g CO2eq/EUR, which is less than half of the 1990 level.

[Figure 2: Total EU GHG emissions including international aviation (historical emissions 1990-2018, projected emissions with existing and with additional measures 4 2019-2030) and GHG reduction targets]

Emissions from stationary installations covered by the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS), which are most emissions from electricity and heat production and industry, fell by 4.1% from 2017 to 2018 5 . The reduction came mainly in electricity and heat production. This is in line with the trend over the last five years, where emissions from these sectors have decreased significantly. This reflects in particular changes in the fuels used to produce heat and electricity, including an increase in the use of renewable energy sources.

Emissions not covered by the EU ETS (such as emissions from transport, buildings, agriculture and waste) decreased by 0.9% from 2017 to 2018. The reduction comes after three years of slightly increasing emissions from these sectors. The reduction came mainly from energy use in buildings. Emissions from agriculture also decreased slightly, while there was a small increase in transport emissions as compared to 2017.

Moreover, emissions from international aviation continued increasing in 2018, and are up 19% over the last five years. These are in principle covered by the EU ETS, for the moment limited to flights in the European Economic Area (EEA).

The EU has put in place legislation to reach its 2030 target

The Union has communicated a nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement of at least 40% domestic greenhouse gas reductions by 2030 compared to 1990. The EU has put in place legislation as shown in Figure 3 that will enable it to deliver on this commitment. The effective implementation of all climate, energy and mobility targets laid down in Union law could even lead to EU-28 greenhouse gas reductions up to around 45% in 2030 compared to 1990.

Cooperation with Norway and Iceland to reach the 2030 target

Norway and Iceland have agreed to cooperate with the EU in reaching their 2030 targets of reducing GHG emissions by at least 40% compared to 1990 levels. In the context of the EEA Agreement, Norway and Iceland will as of 2021 implement the Effort Sharing Regulation and the LULUCF Regulation. Norway and Iceland already take part in the EU ETS since 2008.

[Figure 3: 2030 Climate and Energy Framework]

Member States identify additional policies and measures to reach 2030 objectives

In 2018, for the first time, Member States prepared draft integrated national energy and climate plans (NECPs) 6 . The draft plans show that Member States make significant progress in defining the path to reaching the 2030 climate and energy targets, although further efforts are still needed. The European Commission has analysed the aggregated effects of the draft plans on reaching the 2030 targets, and issued country-specific recommendations 7 . Member States must finalise their plans by the end of 2019.

With national policies and measures already implemented, emissions are projected to be reduced by 30% in 2030 according to an aggregation of the latest national GHG projections. With implementation of the planned measures or stated ambitions in the draft NECPs, the overall GHG reduction of the EU is estimated to reach the at least 40% reduction target.

The latest projections from Member States, submitted after the draft NECPs, indicate that with implementation of planned policies, but excluding stated ambitions (targets), emissions may be reduced by 36% in 2030. This estimate is somewhat lower than the assessment of the draft NECPs. The main reasons for the difference are that the assessment of the draft NECPs takes into account the national targets expressed by Germany and the Netherlands in their draft NECPs and that Poland presented projections with planned measures in its draft NECP, but did not submit these as part of the reporting exercise on projections in 2019.