BAKGRUNN (fra Kommisjonens pressemelding 6.2.2024)

Climate change is intensifying and its real-life costs accelerating. A historically high acceleration in climate disruption in 2023, saw global warming reaching 1.48°C above pre-industrial level for the first time, and ocean temperatures and Antarctic Ocean ice loss breaking records by a wide margin. It is clearer than ever that achieving a stable climate and safeguarding a liveable planet for current and future generations means cutting global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions sharply and rapidly and preparing for future impacts of climate change( 1 ). This pathway can and must go hand in hand with shaping a prosperous and fair society, and EU industry and agricultural sector that are agile and strong in a globally competitive and increasingly sustainable economy that delivers for all the people and in line with the 20 principles of the European Pillar of Social Rights and its Action Plan.

The outcome of COP28 in Dubai and the first global stocktake of climate action shows that the rest of the world is rapidly moving onto this pathway as well. The EU, having written climate neutrality by 2050 into law, has been leading in climate action, and will stay the course.

The vision of Europe at the end of the next decade is a comprehensive one: it should remain a prime destination for investment opportunities that bring stable, future-proof quality jobs, with a strong industrial ecosystem. Europe should lead in developing the clean technology markets of the future, where all major countries and businesses seek to avail themselves of the market opportunities. Becoming a continent with clean, low-carbon, affordable energy and sustainable food and materials, will make it resilient against future crises, such as those currently caused by disruptions in the supply of fossil fuels. By remaining a global leader and a trusted partner in climate action, Europe will simultaneously strengthen its open strategic autonomy and diversify its sustainable global value chains to be the master of its fate in a volatile world.

Well-designed climate action can deliver this vision for Europe and its citizens. The European Green Deal is the EU’s long-term strategy for economic growth, investment and innovation. Its implementation will notably strengthen the EU’s energy independence from fossil fuels. In 2022, the value of fossil fuel imports soared to EUR 640 billion (4.1% of GDP), because of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. In 2023, when prices came down substantially, net fossil fuel import costs accounted for about 2.4% of GDP ( 2 ).

Growing the economy on the basis of fossil fuels and resource wastage is not sustainable. The EU has shown that climate action and sustaining economic growth go hand in hand by decoupling growth from greenhouse gas emissions. According to provisional data, total net GHG emissions were 32.5% lower in 2022 than in 1990( 3 ) while the economy has grown by 67% ( 4 ). The materials productivity has increased by 37.5% between 2000 and 2022 ( 5 ). 

Record levels of renewable and low carbon technologies are now being deployed. The EU installed an unprecedented 17 GW of new wind energy and 56 GW of solar (DC) in 2023. In 2022, about 3 million units of heat pumps were sold.

The European Climate Law introduced an intermediate target to be proposed by the Commission at the latest six months after the global stocktake under the Paris Agreement. Hence, in line with the scientific advice by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change and based on a detailed Impact Assessment, this Communication presents a 90% net GHG emission reduction compared to 1990 levels as the recommended target for 2040 (“the 2040 target”). It would ensure that the corresponding overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions budget for the EU between now and 2050 is in line with the provisions of the European Climate Law and provides a credible pathway to a strong and sustainable society in Europe.

Achieving this target will require a number of enabling conditions, such as the full implementation of the agreed 2030 framework, ensuring the competitiveness of the European industry, a greater focus on a just transition that leaves no one behind, a level playing field with international partners, and a strategic dialogue on the post-2030 framework, including with industry and the agricultural sector.

The objective of this Communication is to launch the political debate and inform the preparation of the post-2030 framework. It does not propose new policy measures or set new sector-specific targets.

At this, stability and full implementation of the legislative framework in place for meeting the 2030 climate and energy targets is a precondition for the EU to stay on course to the 2040 target on the way to climate neutrality in 2050 and to reap the full potential of the transition. In fact, an extension of current policies towards 2040 would already lead to a -88% reduction by 2040. Frontloading the decarbonisation on our path to climate neutrality by 2050 will significantly reduce fossil fuel imports (by 80% in 2040) and hence provide greater protection against price shocks and create a lead market in clean technologies, strengthening the EU’s open strategic autonomy and competitiveness. More focus is however needed on a framework that ensures that all citizens benefit from the climate transition, already now and into the next decades. For example, the European Green Deal must also be an industrial decarbonisation deal. Europe needs better integration of employment and skills as well as social and distributional aspects in climate action and an enabling framework for decarbonised industry in the pursuit of sustainable economic growth, as well as a global level playing field for green business to thrive. Europe will also need to plan the necessary energy and transport infrastructure. These aspects will be addressed in the upcoming reviews already foreseen in existing EU measures to ensure the successful achievement of our 2030 objectives.

Moreover, Europe will need to mobilise the right mix of private and public sector investment to make our economy both sustainable and competitive. In this area, a European approach on finance will be needed in the coming years, in close cooperation with Member States, to generate economies of scale and scope, while limiting fragmentation of efforts and deepening of regional imbalances.

Many investments to be undertaken to realise the 2030 climate and energy targets have impacts spanning decades. Defining a climate target for 2040 now will provide investment predictability. It will help EU decision makers, Member States and stakeholders to take the necessary decisions in this critical decade, so that these are compatible with the 2040 target and the climate neutrality objective, minimising the risks of lock-in to costly, sub-optimal paths and stranded assets.

The imperative that the transition has to be just is at the heart of the European Green Deal given the worries among some citizens and industrial actors about the risks and costs of the climate and energy transition. Climate action has to bring everybody along, paying particular attention to supporting those who face the greatest challenge. That is why this Communication is the start of a dialogue and an extensive outreach to citizens, businesses, social partners, NGOs, academia and other stakeholders on the right 2040 pathway to climate neutrality by 2050. Such dialogue with industry is already taking place through Clean Transition Dialogues organised with the key industrial sectors, and will be continued and expanded, including in a 2040 perspective. The Strategic Dialogue on the Future of Agriculture with farmers and other actors in the food chain on the future of agriculture has also been launched. Furthermore, a a structured and systematic dialogue with social partners should be strengthened to ensure their contribution, focusing on employment, including availability of jobs for displaced workers, mobility, job quality, investments in reskilling and upskilling. The Commission will present the stocktake of the Clean Transition Dialogues prior to the Special European Council meeting in April this year. These dialogues and outreach will allow the next Commission to table legislative proposals for the post-2030 policy framework that will be needed to deliver the 2040 target in a fair and cost-efficient manner.

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